Buy the shares or sell the puts

One question: how does Google have to perform for owning the stock on margin to beat selling long-dated puts on it. Change any input; everything below recalculates.

Where the two strategies cross

Buying wins above

Google must return

Selling caps at

Payoff at expiry

Nine terminal prices

Terminal price

Buy P&L

Sell P&L

Difference

Inputs

Market

Spot price ($)

Implied volatility (%/yr)

Dividend yield (%/yr)

Risk-free rate (%/yr)

Expected annual drift for the probability view (%/yr)

Horizon

Expiry

Capital

Capital at risk ($)

Side A: buy the shares

Percent financed on margin (100%)

Margin interest rate (%/yr)

Side B: sell the puts

Strike ($)

Premium received ($/share)

Long put strike, optional spread ($)

Long put premium ($/share)

Equal notional Equal delta

What each side ties up in margin

Shares, Reg T (25% of notional)	-
Shares, portfolio margin (15% of notional)	-
Naked short put (20% rule, 10% floor)	-
Spread collateral (width minus credit)	-

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Expected P&L, buy

Expected P&L, sell

Head to head

Chance of a loss

5th and 95th percentile outcomes

5th / 95th percentile P&L, buy

5th / 95th percentile P&L, sell

How to read this

The crossover prices come from solving where the two strategies pay exactly the same at expiry. Between them, one strategy wins by construction, not by opinion.
Buying on margin is a bet with unlimited upside and a floor near the cash you put down. Selling puts caps the gain at the premium and leaves you exposed below the strike.
The probability numbers use the drift you set, not the risk-free rate, so a bullish drift makes buying look better and a bearish one favors selling. Move it to see how sensitive the picture is.
The reference Black-Scholes value next to the premium shows whether the option is priced rich or cheap against the volatility you entered. It does not predict what the option will actually trade for.
The margin line shows what each side actually ties up in collateral, Reg T for the shares and the 20% rule for the naked put, even though both sides are sized off the same capital figure everywhere else on this page.